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Analyst: No New Consoles Until 2013, Despite Slowing Software Sales

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that we will not enter the next console generation until 2013. Investors are getting a bit worried as video game software sales seem to have peaked for the current generation. I don’t think they have, but when compared to last year, sales are down in 2009. Now, some people could freak out and start looking toward the PS4 and Xbox 720, but remain calm the economy is way down and we have to wait for it to improve.

“We do not expect a ‘new’ console in 2010 (other than the long-rumored high definition Wii, which is likely to upgrade the Wii to current console technology),” said Pachter.

Sure, sales are down from last year, but the first few months of last year saw the releases of Super Smash Bros. BrawlGrand Theft Auto IV, andMetal Gear Solid 4.  A new HD Wii is an interesting thought, but many industry experts don’t really see the point. Third-party development on the Wii tends to be relegated to lower budget titles and will likely continue in that direction (especially when games like MadWorld bomb at retail). It’s the hardcore gamers that want HD and they aren’t buying games on the Wii anyway. Do minigame collections really need 720p graphics and how many Wii onwers even want to game in HD anyways?

Well, what about the Xbox 360 and PS3?

Developers haven’t even gotten to the point where they are hitting the limits of the consoles. Sure, they may need to make the occasional mandatory install on the PS3 or pray to the deity of their choice that Microsoft let’s them use the hard drive for serious caching during gameplay.

The turning point to the next-gen for me is when PC games begin to drastically outpace console games. Right now, they are pretty much equal. Sure, PC games can sport better textures and higher resolutions, but the hardware cost is much higher.

I also don’t know how smart it would be for Sony or Microsoft to push out any hardware in the next year or two. Sony still needs to get the price of the PS3 down to the mass-market levels. I for one can’t imagine what a system with better hardware than the PS3 would cost in the near future and would you be willing to pay for it. 

Microsoft recently started pulling a profit on the Xbox 360 hardware and always had great software sales. Why splinter your audience with a new console? I think Microsoft will probably follow the PS2 and PS3 timing with the Xbox 360 and its follow-up. 

I think we’ll see a new PSP soon and Nintendo will probably release another iteration of the DS or DSi next week. Probably not, but they sure do like to re-release the same platform over and over again.

Do you see the need for new hardware within the next year or two? Are you unhappy with the performance of your current console? Have you slowed down your purchasing because you think new hardware is on the way? Do you even want the new hardware anyway or could you afford to buy it?

[via G4TV]

[via Gamasutra]